Los Angeles' increasingly dire financial health raises serious doubt about the once sacrosanct pledge to keep LAPD's ranks at the current record high of just less than 10,000 officers. Now, many city officials acknowledge that the Los Angeles Police Department will not escape the chopping block as they look for ways to make up a $700 million shortfall over the next 18 months.

Meanwhile, financial pressures and court orders are forcing the state to release thousands of inmates early from overcrowded prisons, into an economy with double-digit unemployment.

So, is Los Angeles on course to become the dystopian nightmare portrayed in the 1980s sci-fi classic "Blade Runner"?

Or can new Police Chief Charlie Beck maintain public safety with fewer and fewer cops on the street each year?

"When you look at an unemployed former prisoner out on the streets, where are they going to go?" asked City Councilman Richard Alarcon. "They are going to spend time in parks and public facilities. We have to be able to deal with it.

"Will it be a 'Blade Runner' scenario? That's pretty extreme. But there is concern about what will happen."

So far, the LAPD has had to give up its overtime budget to the cost-savings drive, which Beck said would result in the equivalent of taking 600 officers off the beat. In response, Beck has transferred 120 officers from special units to shore up the divisions and provide area captains with the officers they need.

Hiring freeze ahead?

But now, even Los Angeles' most ardent law enforcement supporters say the city needs to consider a hiring freeze on the department. If the LAPD can't hire to fill retirees and others who leave the force, it could lose between 400 and 500 officers this coming year. The LAPD is now authorized for 9,963 officers, the most in its history.

Coupled with that are cuts in parks and anti-gang programs, leaving more young people at risk of joining gangs.

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, along with former Police Chief William Bratton, fought to build the LAPD into a 10,000 officer police force. His aides say that despite the tough budget climate, Villaraigosa will not back away from his promises not to let the force shrink.

"There is no scenario in which the mayor will stop fighting to keep the Police Department at the level it is," Deputy Mayor Matt Szabo said. He added the mayor will also fight to keep anti-gang programs and city swimming pools open to give kids an alternative to gangs.

But Villaraigosa is finding it more difficult to make his case to protect LAPD numbers as the budget crisis rolls on.

Last week, the city suffered an embarrassing downgrade of its credit worthiness by Standard & Poor's Corp. Just a few days earlier, the other leading Wall Street rating agency, Moody's Investor Services Inc., lowered the city's credit outlook to negative from stable, a move that typically signals a credit downgrade is on the way.

Downgrades are bad for the city because they mean the city will have to pay more for interest on everything from money borrowed to cover short-term operating costs to long-term bond obligations.

Moody's analyst Eric Hoffman said there is no timetable for the city to act.

"It is not immediate, but what we are saying is over the next 18 to 24 months, there is a better than 50-50 chance the city will be downgraded," Hoffman said.

Councilman Tony Cardenas agrees with the mayor that the city's priority is public safety, but he questions whether the LAPD can maintain its numbers.

"If we keep the Police Department where it is, we would have to gut every other department," Cardenas said. "That's parks, libraries, arts programs. What it could mean is that the only adult influence for our young people will be with police. I'm not sure we want that."

The logical targets

Police and fire are logical cost-cutting targets as together they make up 70 percent of the general fund budget.

"What do we do?" asked Councilman Greig Smith, who chairs the Public Safety Committee, serves on the Budget and Finance Committee and is a reserve police officer. "We have an Armageddon of a budget to deal with ... A decision has to be made on what we can afford in police and fire and other services."

Councilman Bernard Parks, a former Los Angeles police chief, said he does not believe the city should be looking at any minimum number of officers.

"There is no right size for the Police Department," Parks said. "You get the police department you can afford. That was true when Ed Davis was chief and wanted 8,500 officers, and it's true now with the mayor wanting 10,000."