Longer sentences and tougher parole conditions proposed in "Chelsea's Law" targeting sex offenders would cost taxpayers little initially, but the price tag could climb into the tens of millions annually, according to a pair of just-released fiscal reports.
Nevertheless, supporters of the legislation inspired by murdered San Diego County teenagers Chelsea King and Amber Dubois vow to press ahead for its passage.
"It's a small price to pay for better protection of our children," said Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, R-San Diego, who is carrying the measure, AB 1844.
The Assembly Appropriations Committee is taking an initial look at the legislation on Wednesday but is not expected to vote until next week.
The state's prison agency estimates that implementing the law would cost $100,000 in the 2012-2013 fiscal year. The per-year price would climb as more predators are kept behind bars longer and are subject to stricter parole conditions when released. The number would grow to $9.1 million in 2019-2020, $27.9 million in 2024-2025 and $54 million in 2029-2030.
The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst issued a report citing incomplete data provided by prison authorities and uncertainty over numbers of inmates who would be eligible for the stricter penalties.
The report said the measure "would likely result in increased criminal justice system costs amounting to at least a few tens of millions of dollars annually with the next year." Also, "the costs collectively would total at least in the low hundreds of millions of dollars annually after several decades."
Part of the surging expense over time could be attributed to the potential need for more prison beds, the analyst suggested.
With Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's current year budget proposes to slash many social service programs important to Democrats, the timing of the cost projections could complicate the measure's future.
Opponents were quick to seize on the price tag. Lobbyist David Warren, who advocates for pursuing alternatives to longer sentences and more prisons, said Democrats will be put in a position of having to "make the economic choice between allowing children and seniors to die from lack of medical care and housing more inmates in our state prisons."
Fletcher countered that "there is virtually no cost to the state for a decade" and has pledged to pursue cost-cutting in the existing prison budget to cover any additional expense to taxpayers.
Rachel Arrezola a spokeswoman for Schwarzenegger, said he remains committed to signing Chelsea's Law, despite the potential expense.
"His top priority is public safety," Arrezola said, "and his administration will continue working with the Legislature to ensure that funding is available to protect our children from violent sex offenders."
The law is a response to the crimes of John Albert Gardner III, who was sentenced Friday to two life terms without the possibility of parole for the rapes and murders of Chelsea and Amber.
Chelsea's Law would require a life sentence without parole in some crimes against children. It would also double certain other sentences, extend the time spent on parole for some offenses and prevent predators on parole from entering parks where children are present without prior permission of authorities.
