The strict immigration enforcement bill that Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer could sign this week is likely to have repercussions beyond the state, not only in terms of political precedent, but in shifts it might prompt in the immigrant population.

Jose Melendez, 55, poses for a photo Wednesday, April 14, 2010 at a meat shop in Flagstaff, Ariz. Melendez, a naturalized U.S. citizen, spoke out against a bill in the Arizona legislature that would create a new state misdemeanor crime of willful failure to complete or carry an alien registration document. The Arizona House on Tuesday approved a bill that would draw local communities deeper into the fight against illegal immigration despite arguments from opponents that it would do nothing to keep people safer. (Photo/Felicia Fonseca)

The bill would make it a misdemeanor to lack proper immigration documents in Arizona, requiring people to carry proof of legal status. It also would require police officers to check immigration status if they have "reasonable suspicion" that someone is in the country illegally, and allow people to sue to force police agencies to comply.

Legal challenges are expected if the bill becomes law, but even the success it has had so far could have a ripple effect in other states, including California.

Illegal immigration has become a high-profile topic in this year's race for California governor. In 1994, the California election was dominated by Proposition 187, a ballot initiative that sought to bar illegal immigrants from public social services, including public education. The measure was eventually struck down in court.

Proposals like the Arizona bill could make the electoral debate here even more intense.

"We could see anything happen, particularly in the context of the gubernatorial race," said David Shirk, director of the Trans-Border Institute and a political science professor at the University of San Diego. "It'll be interesting to see how the gubernatorial race drives the debate on immigration."

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner has claimed that Republican gubernatorial rival Meg Whitman supports amnesty for illegal immigrants, which the former eBay CEO denies. Poizner, who once backed Bush administration policies that would have provided a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, has recently called for laws restricting services for illegal immigrants, but has not proposed Arizona-like legislation.

A legislative measure similar to Arizona's may be less likely in California, where Republicans are a minority in the Capitol. But the immigration debate in California has played out not only at the legislative and state initiative levels, but in local laws. For example, in 2006, the Escondido City Council passed a law that attempted to penalize landlords who rented to illegal immigrants. The city eventually reconsidered following a lawsuit.

Police organizations are divided on the Arizona bill. Proponents say the measure is an enforcement tool. Those who oppose it say it amounts to state-sanctioned racial profiling.

The bill is the second tough-on-immigration measure Arizona has approved in recent years. In January 2008, a law took effect mandating employers in the state to use the federal government's E-Verify program to check the legal status of new employees.

If the new bill becomes law, it's likely that Arizona will become even less attractive for those there illegally, said Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington, D.C., organization that advocates restricting immigration.

"Some of them will go home, some who aren't here yet will decide not to come, and some will move to San Diego or elsewhere," Krikorian said. "From Arizona's perspective, if people are moving instead to Georgia or Minnesota or California, that is not really their problem anymore."

But the Grand Canyon State may become less attractive for some U.S. citizens and legal residents of color, too.

"Definitely, people are saying, 'I want to move away from Arizona,' " said Isabel Garcia, an attorney in Tucson with deep Mexican-American roots.

Garcia said she was outraged about what she considers to be the profiling aspect of the bill. She said any American with brown skin could now be viewed with suspicion.

"They are going to decide what an American is?" Garcia said. "I'm a fourth-generation Arizonan, my kids are fifth generation, my grandchildren are sixth. And we are going to be subjected to this?"

Not all Mexican-American Arizonans are complaining, however. Al Garza, a former leader of the now-disbanded Minuteman Civil Defense Corps - another reaction to Arizona's human smuggling traffic - said he thought it was "totally great."

"The laws are in the books," Garza said. "They just haven't been enforced."

There is little question that the Arizona bill could make life more complicated. Rosalva Romero, an organizer with the Coalición de Derechos Humanos, a human rights group in Tucson, pointed out that in Arizona, as in neighboring states, mixed-status families are common. For example, a father and his children might have documents, she said, while their mother does not.

Romero said that many immigrants she speaks with, particularly those without documents, have talked of returning to their native countries or moving to another state. She said she is advising them to stay put.

"If you move, where would you go?" Romero said. "If the law passes here in Arizona, there will be other laws. It will not only happen here in Arizona. They will be affected elsewhere, in the long run."

It's most likely that ripple-effect legislation will be seen in states that have had an influx of immigrants in recent years, Shirk said. And as with the Arizona measure, the economy will play a role.

"Right now, when you look at the economy and you have 9 million people unemployed and an estimated 12 million undocumented in the country, it creates a sense, real or imagined, that undocumented immigrants are taking over, in jobs that should theoretically go to Americans," Shirk said. "The border is expanding now to places that are not traditional immigrant-receiving states. For those places, the phenomenon of immigration will require a difficult adjustment, and that difficult adjustment will lead to those kinds of reactions."

The political climate in Arizona that led to the bill's passage this month was affected by factors that include the economy, Arizona's status as the southern border's biggest entry point for illegal immigration, and a dramatic growth in the state's foreign-born population, said Judith Gans, of the University of Arizona's Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy. According to a report she authored, the state's foreign-born population grew by more than 200 percent between 1990 and 2004.

"Since the border fence went up in California, the rate of migration through Arizona has increased, so Arizona is both a funnel and an end point," Gans said.