Recent cuts to California prison programs could result in more former inmates returning to prison and an increase in prison crowding, according to a draft state report.

The report from the California Rehabilitation Oversight Board, charged with overseeing rehabilitation programs, appears to contradict contentions by state prison officials who have said the budget cuts would not affect recidivism rates and will make prison programs more effective.

The report warns that the $250 million cut from inmate programs this year "may well mean that the hoped for reduction in recidivism will not be achieved any time soon," and that without those reductions "it seems likely that California will be unable to get control of the inmate population crisis."

The draft report will be presented to the governor and Legislature on March 15.

California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation Secretary Matthew Cate sits on the board and agreed with the report's findings. But he said the findings do not contradict the department's position.

"Their concerns are valid ... but we don't have a choice," he said. "The Legislature took $250 million. Our staff is some of the finest in the field and they have done a really good job doing more with less."

The report says that budget cuts, prompted by last year's $60 billion state budget shortfall, forced the department to abandon programs that had been in development for two years and to curtail education, substance abuse treatment and vocational efforts.

Prison teachers and some lawmakers have questioned the cuts, saying that the programs reduce prison violence and increase offenders' chances of succeeding when they are released, thereby reducing taxpayer costs. On Wednesday, retired corrections Sgt. Debra Tidwell and former inmate Hugo Machuca sat side by side and told the board that more program opportunities mean fewer prison riots, less drug use among inmates and lower overtime and workers compensation costs.

The report cites as potential problems teacher layoffs, increased class sizes, reduced time in classes, reliance on inmate homework and increased administrative paperwork. It says that some of the changes, such as using more teaching assistants, could theoretically work but have not been proven. And others - such as assigning academic program participants homework - could have negative impacts. The board warns that homework could turn into a "commodity," with inmates paying one another to get it done.

The board is made up of public officials, including the state's inspector general, and was created by the Legislature in 2007.

One board member, Loren Buddress - San Mateo County's former chief probation officer - said the report points out the department's "enormous challenges."

But David Warren, a volunteer Jewish chaplain in the prison system for 15 years, said it is "insufficiently strident."

"People in the Capitol don't understand how bad things are right now," he said. "When things hit the fan ... and the legislators have to run for cover, they are going to say nobody told me."