Jobs will continue to drain from Los Angeles County through year's end before the Great Recession finally begins to loosen its grip in 2011, according to an economic forecast released today.
The study by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. predicts that payrolls will grow 1 percent next year, adding 40,000 jobs in the county and 145,000 jobs statewide. Until then, however, 2010 will remain a tough time for many employers.
"A lot of gloom is in the air because economic activity is at such low levels," chief economist Jack Kyser wrote in the forecast.
Nonfarm employment in the county is expected to dip 0.5 percent this year, equal to 20,000 jobs, the report said. That compares with a decline of 4.5 percent, or 154,000 jobs, lost last year.
The county's unemployment rate, which averaged 11.7 percent in 2009, will increase to 12.4 percent this year before slipping back to 12 percent in 2011.
Statewide employment is forecast to fall 0.8 percent this year, a loss equal to 129,000 jobs. That compares with the loss of 668,000 jobs in 2009.
Other experts concurred with the LAEDC that better days are ahead.
Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist at the UCLA's Anderson Forecast, predicted that the dollar's weakness against some international currencies will increase the demand for exports and help spur more robust job creation next year.
In addition, he said, the technology sector is getting an infusion of investment in clean energy and alternative transportation systems - both of which will create jobs.
"As we get into 2011, the positives really outweigh the negatives and we should see a growth at a faster rate of 1.5 to 2 percent," he said.
The LAEDC expects growth in six sectors - health services, private education, major construction projects, international trade, tourism and retail sales.
Four sectors - commercial real estate, government finance, apartment and condominium construction and manufacturing - will continue to struggle in a tough economic environment.
Alberto G. Alverado, Los Angeles district director of the federal Small Business Administration, said that LAEDC outlook is welcome news.
"We do see that the job losses in general have diminished. The loss of jobs are not occurring as much as we've seen in the past year and a half," he said.
However, businesses still face a tough credit environment, although that may improve through 2011, Alverado said.
Elan Shore, director of economic development at the Economic Alliance of the San Fernando Valley, said that some businesses seem to be a little more optimistic about the future.
"I think business owners are getting that sort of sense but there is still a feeling there is still amount of pain to be felt before everything is back on the upswing," he said.
But Stephen Levy, the director and senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto, cautioned that the recovery is still a year away.
"However you cut it, this will be a slow year for growth for both California and L.A.county," Levy said. "But from everything I've seen we should have a pretty strong job growth in 2011."
Kyser noted that the recession began in the fourth quarter of 2007 and officially ended in mid-2009. That makes it the longest economic downturn since the Great Depression.
"At the end of 2010 we can pat ourselves on the back and say we've survived," he said.
